US e-commerce hit ~16% of retail in 2025 while online prices kept falling

Two things can be true at the same time in the U.S. market:

1. More money is being spent online, and
2. Online prices (on average) have been declining year-over-year for long stretches.

That combination matters if you’re building price intelligence for modern e-commerce.

The core numbers (U.S., 2024–2025)

E-commerce share of retail is ~16% in 2025.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported that e-commerce accounted for 16.4% of total retail sales in Q3 2025 (seasonally adjusted). The same release also notes e-commerce sales growth outpacing total retail sales year-over-year.
FRED’s “e-commerce as a percent of total sales” series (not seasonally adjusted) shows 15.8% in Q3 2025, which is directionally consistent with the Census release but uses a different adjustment approach.

Online prices were down in late 2024.
Adobe’s Digital Price Index (DPI) reported that in October 2024, online prices were down 2.9% year-over-year, marking 26 consecutive months of annual online price declines. DPI is modeled after CPI-style inflation measurement, but computed from large-scale digital commerce data.

Why this is a big deal for competitor tracking

When online prices compress while online demand remains strong:

• Promos become more frequent and more tactical (discounts, coupons, bundles, “free shipping over X”).
• Small offer tweaks matter more than headline price (shipping thresholds, delivery promises, return friction).
• Stock and assortment churn becomes a pricing lever (a competitor keeps “price stable” by swapping variants or pushing substitutes).

In practice, “the price” that wins the sale is increasingly the effective price: what the shopper pays after shipping, discounts, and conditions.

What Trackabl should store (minimum viable “effective price”)

For every tracked SKU/offer snapshot, store:

• Base price
• Shipping price and free-shipping threshold
• Discount state (strike-through, badge text, coupon/code prompts)
• Availability (in stock / limited / out)
• Delivery ETA (when shown)

That’s the smallest dataset that lets you answer the question your customers actually care about:

“Did my competitor really get cheaper… or did they just change the offer mechanics?”

A simple takeaway

Central datasets from Census + high-frequency pricing evidence from Adobe point in the same direction:
e-commerce is large and still growing, and price competition plays out through the full offer—promos, shipping, and availability—not just a sticker price.